Thursday, October 20, 2016

Who Will Be The Looser If Tension Escalates Between India and Pakistan?

While Moodi Sarkar is certainly going to reap the fruits of this so-called surgical strike (which killed two Pakistani soldiers) in the next India wide elections, let's see who will be the actual loser  if the  tension between the nuclear neighbours escalates? 

The initial hype of the orchestrated Uri attack which suits the engineers of the next election is against the Bollywood who is perpetrating the horrible crime of hiring Pakistani stars. BollyWood is under severe pressure to kick out Pakistani artist and that is fine. On the other hand, BollyWood's own stars are forced to protest the Uri attack as if they are authorities who can stop Pakistan doing the same next time. Pakistani stars are accused of avoiding protest statements. Notably, when Indian army used pellet guns to shoot the eyes of unarmed civilians in Kashmir in July and August, Indian media did not force the Bollywood stars to protest. Is Kashmir not an 'Aatoot Ang' of India?  If it really is, then there must be some voice heard in the support of this 'Atoot Ang' population.  

Now let's leave the world of BollyWood and come to the world of reality and trade. According to the reports published by an Indian Economic Think Tank, it will be India who will be the loser if  there is a deadlock in India-Pakistan bilateral trade relationships. ICRIER, Indian  Council for Research on International Economic Relations, is an economic policy non-profit independent think tank which releases the statistics of Indian bilateral trade. According to a report released by ICRIER in July 2016, India’s annual informal trade with Pakistan is about US$ 4.71 billion. Of this, India’s exports to Pakistan are estimated to be USD 3.99 billion and imports from Pakistan USD 0.72 billion.

So Pakistan will lose USD 0.72 Million and India will lose USD 3.99 billion. Those who don't know the difference between million and billion should remember a million has 1 digit and 6 zeros (1,000,000), while a billion has 1 digit and 9 zeros (1,000,000,000). So those who are still confused about what should be the stance of Fawad Khan should realize the gravity of the situation.

Hold on, these figures indicate only formal trade between Pakistan and India. There exist other informal routes by which India exports its commodities to Pakistan. One example of such informal trade quoted by Indian writer and Film Maker Mahesh Nair in his recently published article,  Surgical strikes done? Let’s ban Bollywood but continue our business with Pakistanis the exports through Gulf countries. As per ICRIER data out of 50,000 members of Surat Textile Industry, 42,000 of its members are exporting overseas and 90 percent of exports are for Pakistanis via Dubai and only 10 percent is exported directly to Pakistan. 

Hold on, these figures indicate only formal trade between Pakistan and India. There exist other informal routes by which India exports its commodities to Pakistan. One example of such informal trade quoted by Indian writer and Film Maker Mahesh Nair in his recently published article,  Surgical strikes done? Let’s ban Bollywood but continue our business with Pakistan, is the exports through Gulf countries. As per ICRIER data out of 50,000 members of Surat Textile Industry, 42,000 of its members are exporting overseas and 90 percent of exports are for Pakistanis via Dubai and only 10 percent is sent directly to Pakistan.  Why don't Shiv Sina and BJP followers protest this trade when they perceive that Pakistani terrorists are killing Indians in cold blood since decades? Why don't they propose a ban on the Shalwar, Kameez, and Dupatta for Pakistani ladies whose terrorists are being perceived killing Indian soldiers?  Why don't they talk about boycotting this trade?

This is because the BJP and Shiv Sina and other nationalist parties know, if there is any deadlock in trade, India will be the greatest loser in this age of cut-throat competition. But again tuf he Sharif bradran pe ju Businessman hote huwe Bharat ki geedar bhapkian thande petun bardasht kerte hen. Is it a fixed match between the rulers of nuclear neighbours? 
Media Bites Editorial - Tazeen Hasan
Published on Octobar, 11, 2016

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